Would you bet $100K that Covid-19 started in a lab?

📅 It’s been approximately 1,561 days since the first known case of Covid-19
Today: The largest book deal in history, storytelling tips, and rethinking disposable objects. By Harris Sockel

Yesterday, a few coworkers and I were discussing this fascinating story: A scientist teamed up with a former Google engineer to disprove the Covid-19 lab leak hypothesis in an epic 18-hour debate. Shin Jie Yong, MSc (Res) dives into all the details in “My Friend Won the US$100,000 Debate on the Origin of Covid.” (You can also watch the debate on YouTube.)

Some background: Rootclaim, the organization behind the debate, uses statistics and probability to determine the answer to controversial questions. They run a program that’s sort of like a bug bounty but for philosophy: If you want to contest one of Rootclaim’s stances, you must bet $100,000 and argue your point before two neutral judges. “Both parties must escrow the money to a third party before the debate,” Yong explains. If the judges unanimously agree on a winner, they take home the money.

Two impartial judges — a gut microbiome scientist and an MIT mathematician — used a Bayesian analysis to conclude that the chances Covid-19 originated in a lab are between 0.3% and 0.075% — or somewhere between 1 in 300 chance and 1 in 1,300. Despite what conspiracy theorists and the U.S. Department of Energy believe, according to this debate it’s likely that Covid-19 originated naturally, probably via a tiny bat inside a Chinese cave.

What else we’re reading

• Researchers at the Tufts Public Opinion Lab looked at data from the 2022 midterms for insights about what might happen in this year’s U.S. presidential election, and identified trends that may end up having the biggest impact on a close race: The extent of eroding support for Biden among Black and Hispanic voters, and the on-going “diploma divide” between voters with or without college degrees.
• I loved this essay by Ashely L. Crouch about how our reliance on convenience and disposability (from fast fashion to K-cups) extends to the way we treat others and think of ourselves. The next time you’re tempted by a perfectly lit Instagram ad, ask yourself: “Do I need this, or am I being sucked into capitalism? Do I only want this because I have been marketed to want this thing? If I can’t give myself a really good reason for how this thing will improve my life or remain in it for years, I no longer buy it.”
• Les Mis: daring escapes, battles in the street, confessions of love, and… a fascinating history that began with a 28-year-old first-time publisher’s investment of 300,000 francs (roughly $200 million today) in a manuscript he hadn’t even read! Albert Lacroix believed so deeply in Victor Hugo’s talent that he secured a loan from the bank to finance the book. It was the largest book deal in history at the time, and proof that big bets can sometimes pay off.

Your daily dose of practical wisdom (about storytelling)

“A lot of people want stories to be, essentially, mathematical formulas: plug this value into this formula, get an expected result. Unfortunately, stories are emotional tools that humans created for emotional reasons,” writes video game developer Doc Burford. There is no formula to great storytelling, because anything formulaic feels pandering. Instead, the best stories are based in human emotion, instinct, and experience.

Edited and produced by Scott Lamb & Carly Rose Gillis

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