Why an asteroid (probably) won’t hit earth in the next decade
Mutual aid, how to be humble, and starting small (Issue #275)
A few weeks ago, I met a new friend: 2024 YR4. He’s an asteroid, and as Neil DeGrasse Tyson tweeted on Valentine’s Day, for a brief period there was a 2% chance that he would hit Earth sometime within the next decade. 2024 YR4 is a pretty big boy (slightly larger than a football field) and he’s a level 3 on the Torino scale, meaning he’s got a 1% or greater probability of causing “localized destruction” (essentially, destroying a city). His reign of terror would begin in December 2032.
Briefly, last week, the chance of impact rose to as high as 3.1% — causing… not panic exactly, but consternation. The chance of impact has since been brought down to 0.28%.
On Medium, astronomy researcher Rebecca Jean T. breaks down how we got from 3.1% to nearly zero. Essentially, as any object approaches Earth, our images of its path become more accurate. “It is important to keep in mind that high-quality observations could take several years,” she writes, “as the best data is collected when it is nearby” — and it won’t be nearby until 2028. Even if it does hit Earth, the chances of it hurting us are small. 71% of Earth’s surface is water. Given a 0.28% chance of impact, and “an even smaller chance that it hits somewhere populated, it is nearly impossible for it to crash somewhere that wipes out an entire city,” she explains.
For comparison, the last time a celestial object hit Earth and caused significant damage was in 2013, when a ball of iron exploded over Russia and around 112 people were hospitalized for either flash blindness or injuries from broken glass. The meteor went totally undetected until it struck because it was flying in front of the sun, so we couldn’t see it. (NASA’s near-Earth detection systems have improved since then.)
More interestingly, there’s another near-Earth asteroid hovering out there: Apophis, named for the ancient Egyptian god of chaos. You can think of Apophis like 2024 YR4’s bigger, even more chaotic brother (about twice as big as the Eiffel Tower). Apophis won’t hit us, but it will whiz past Earth on April 13, 2029 (Friday the 13th!), missing us by only ~19,000 miles and coming 10 times closer to us than the moon. It will look like a very bright shooting star whipping through the sky. You’ll be able to see it from Africa and Europe.
Be safe out there!
🌎 Elsewhere on the internet…
- Desirée Stephens draws a connection between systems of mutual aid among Black communities in the U.S. 200 years ago and West African rotating savings and credit systems. The concept of mutual aid — an organizing principle that essentially means “giving what you can and getting what you need” — dates back to medieval craft guilds, and was a founding principle of the Free African Society, one of the first Black-led institutions in the U.S. dedicated to helping newly freed, formerly enslaved people build community, skills, and wealth.
- A definition of humility: coming to terms with the fact that “what was once widely accepted truth is now outdated dogma and it will be again.” (Andrew Bosworth)
- Political organizing is no substitute for therapy. (Clementine Morrigan)
- This musical rendition of rage-baiting made me laugh… a lot. So much of the internet sounds like this now?
✍️ Your daily dose of practical wisdom
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Edited and produced by Scott Lamb & Carly Rose Gillis
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