The changing “keys” to the White House
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Issue #207: the women who created werewolf stories and the four doors we use to determine right vs. wrong
A big story last week was how historian Allan Lichtman’s “13 keys to the White House” — a prediction model that has accurately called 90% of the past 40 years of presidential races — failed. (He predicted Kamala Harris to be the winner.)
Admittedly, these keys were new to me, so here’s what I learned: Lichtman’s whole deal is that there are 13 boolean statements (keys) that can predict whether an incumbent party will win or lose an election. I recommend reading through them all, but they include things like “The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal,” or “The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.” Because there are 13 of them, at least 7 need to be “turned” (or determined to be true) to accurately predict the election one way or another.
So, what did Lichtman get wrong? “I don’t think I called any (keys) wrong,” he told USA Today, before claiming the “contest” key was “rendered problematic by what went on by the Democratic Party.” Here is that key: “No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.” He determined that statement to be true. Would you?
Critics claim that the 13 keys are pretty subjective. Nate Silver, known for his own thorny political prediction history, even tweeted at Lichtman saying, “At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary?”
On Medium, foreign policy expert Cam Silver, Ph.D. recently published an examination of an “unturned key” from the 1992 presidential race. Prior to George H.W. Bush’s defeat, Lichtman neglected to turn the key that states: “There is no sustained social unrest during the term.” But Silver believes the variety of organized and potent demonstrations that ACT UP (AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power) organized (which were also universally covered by mainstream media outlets) could certainly be categorized as significant enough:
This wasn’t fringe. ACT UP was a vocal and persistent part of the American political landscape, demanding accountability from those in power. By all standards of social movement theory, this kind of sustained, relentless protest more than qualifies as social unrest.
What’s the future of Lichtman’s keys? He elaborated in an interview this week that the unprecedented amount of disinformation that plagued this election season (and the rocket fuel of funding by the billionaire class that accelerated it) is making him consider a reevaluation of his model:
The premise of the keys is that a rational and pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get 4 more years. If the views of the White House parties are … driven by those who are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then maybe the premise of the keys needs to be changed.
1 sentence = 1 awesome story:
- The earliest stories about werewolves are thought to be written by women and date back to the 12th century. (Daley W.)
- As podcasts continue to dominate our modern media landscape (see below), one writer leaned in by turning her novel into one — and describes her hunt for the right soundtrack to accompany it. (Hilde Festerling)
- Four “doors” shape our interpretation of right and wrong: ethics, morality, law, and religion. (Law and Ordnung)
An eyebrow-raising graph:
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Edited and produced by Scott Lamb & Harris Sockel
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